June 03,2025

51,000 Americans Will Die Every Year as a Direct Result of Republican Health Plan: New Analysis

Washington, D.C. – Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., issued a statement today after a new analysis estimates that more than 51,000 people will die per year as a direct result of the Republican reconciliation bill, and their refusal to extend Affordable Care Act premium tax credits.

“Despite some of the callous sarcasm from Republican members of Congress lately, the stakes for this bill are truly life and death for tens of thousands of Americans,” Wyden said. “Taking away health insurance and benefits like home care and mental health care from seniors, people with disabilities, kids, and working families will be deadly. This analysis shows the dire consequences of moving ahead with this morally bankrupt effort.”

The analysis, conducted by the University of Pennsylvania’s Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics (Penn LDI) and the Yale School of Public Health’s Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis,  finds:

  1. 11,300 deaths per year from the loss of Medicaid or Affordable Care Act Marketplace coverage due to 7.7 million people losing coverage.
  2. 18,200 deaths per year due to the loss of Medicaid coverage among 1.38 million low-income Medicare beneficiaries, causing loss of access to low-income prescription drug assistance.
  3. 13,000 deaths per year among Medicaid enrollees in nursing homes due to the rollback of the 2024 nursing home minimum staffing rule.  
  4. 8,811 deaths per year from the proposed bill’s failure to extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits.

The full analysis can be found here.

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